High connectivity and human movement limits the impact of travel time on infectious disease transmission.

The speed of spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlights the importance of understanding how infections are transmitted in a highly connected world. Prior to vaccination, changes in human mobility patterns were used as non-pharmaceutical interventions to eliminate or suppress viral transmission. The rapid spread of respiratory viruses, various intervention approaches, and the global dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 underscore the necessity for epidemiological models that incorporate mobility to comprehend the spread of the virus. Here, we introduce a metapopulation susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model parametrized with human movement data from 340 cities in China. Our model replicates the early-case trajectory in the COVID-19 pandemic. We then use machine learning algorithms to determine which network properties best predict spread between cities and find travel time to be most important, followed by the human movement-weighted personalized PageRank. However, we show that travel time is most influential locally, after which the high connectivity between cities reduces the impact of travel time between individual cities on transmission speed. Additionally, we demonstrate that only significantly reduced movement substantially impacts infection spread times throughout the network.

Evaluating active leprosy case identification methods in six districts of Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Nepal has achieved and sustained the elimination of leprosy as a public health problem since 2009, but 17 districts and 3 provinces with 41% (10,907,128) of Nepal's population have yet to eliminate the disease. Pediatric cases and grade-2 disabilities (G2D) indicate recent transmission and late diagnosis, respectively, which necessitate active and early case detection. This operational research was performed to identify approaches best suited for early case detection, determine community-based leprosy epidemiology, and identify hidden leprosy cases early and respond with prompt treatment. METHODS: Active case detection was undertaken in two Nepali provinces with the greatest burden of leprosy, Madhesh Province (40% national cases) and Lumbini Province (18%) and at-risk prison populations in Madhesh, Lumbini and Bagmati provinces. Case detection was performed by (1) house-to-house visits among vulnerable populations (n = 26,469); (2) contact examination and tracing (n = 7608); in Madhesh and Lumbini Provinces and, (3) screening prison populations (n = 4428) in Madhesh, Lumbini and Bagmati Provinces of Nepal. Per case direct medical and non-medical costs for each approach were calculated. RESULTS: New case detection rates were highest for contact tracing (250), followed by house-to-house visits (102) and prison screening (45) per 100,000 population screened. However, the cost per case identified was cheapest for house-to-house visits [Nepalese rupee (NPR) 76,500/case], followed by contact tracing (NPR 90,286/case) and prison screening (NPR 298,300/case). House-to-house and contact tracing case paucibacillary/multibacillary (PB:MB) ratios were 59:41 and 68:32; female/male ratios 63:37 and 57:43; pediatric cases 11% in both approaches; and grade-2 disabilities (G2D) 11% and 5%, respectively. Developing leprosy was not significantly different among household and neighbor contacts [odds ratios (OR) = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.24-5.85] and for contacts of MB versus PB cases (OR = 0.7, 95% CI 0.26-2.0). Attack rates were not significantly different among household contacts of MB cases (0.32%, 95% CI 0.07-0.94%) and PB cases (0.13%, 95% CI 0.03-0.73) (χ2 = 0.07, df = 1, P = 0.9) and neighbor contacts of MB cases (0.23%, 0.1-0.46) and PB cases (0.48%, 0.19-0.98) (χ2 = 0.8, df = 1, P = 0.7). BCG vaccination with scar presence had a significant protective effect against leprosy (OR = 0.42, 0.22-0.81). CONCLUSIONS: The most effective case identification approach here is contact tracing, followed by house-to-house visits in vulnerable populations and screening in prisons, although house-to-house visits are cheaper. The findings suggest that hidden cases, recent transmission, and late diagnosis in the community exist and highlight the importance of early case detection.

Developing One Health surveillance systems.

The health of humans, domestic and wild animals, plants, and the environment are inter-dependent. Global anthropogenic change is a key driver of disease emergence and spread and leads to biodiversity loss and ecosystem function degradation, which are themselves drivers of disease emergence. Pathogen spill-over events and subsequent disease outbreaks, including pandemics, in humans, animals and plants may arise when factors driving disease emergence and spread converge. One Health is an integrated approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimize human, animal and ecosystem health. Conventional disease surveillance has been siloed by sectors, with separate systems addressing the health of humans, domestic animals, cultivated plants, wildlife and the environment. One Health surveillance should include integrated surveillance for known and unknown pathogens, but combined with this more traditional disease-based surveillance, it also must include surveillance of drivers of disease emergence to improve prevention and mitigation of spill-over events. Here, we outline such an approach, including the characteristics and components required to overcome barriers and to optimize an integrated One Health surveillance system.

Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots.

The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multiple drivers-landscape change, host distribution, and human exposure-associated with the risk of spillover of zoonotic SARS-like coronaviruses to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and indirect transmission pathways by modeling four scenarios with livestock and mammalian wildlife as potential and known reservoirs before examining how access to healthcare varies within clusters and scenarios. We found 19 clusters with differing risk factor contributions within a single country (N = 9) or transboundary (N = 10). High-risk areas were mainly closer (11-20%) rather than far ( < 1%) from healthcare. Areas far from healthcare reveal healthcare access inequalities, especially Scenario 3, which includes wild mammals and not livestock as secondary hosts. China (N = 2) and Indonesia (N = 1) had clusters with the highest risk. Our findings can help stakeholders in land use planning, integrating healthcare implementation and One Health actions.

Low risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease transmission from blood transfusions in Aotearoa New Zealand suggests donor exclusion policies can be relaxed.

Aotearoa New Zealand currently excludes potential blood donors who lived in the United Kingdom (UK) for 6 months or more between 1980 and 1996. This action is due to the potential for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) following blood transfusions from preclinical vCJD cases, who themselves mostly developed disease from the consumption of cattle with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during this period, or from those incubating the misfolded prion proteins that cause disease. This donor exclusion policy led to 10% of New Zealand's active blood donors in 2000 being excluded, and it remains today despite periodic shortages of some blood products. Globally there have been 232 vCJD cases recorded-178 in the UK-with no new cases since 2019 and the peak numbers 23 years ago in 2000. Only three confirmed cases have been linked to blood transfusion. Here, we aimed to estimate the annual risk of vCJD from blood transfusion in New Zealand after restriction removal. We used UK case numbers, population estimates, and donor and recipient transfusion numbers to calculate the risk to the New Zealand public. We calculated the risk, based on approximately 131,000 transfusions a year and accounting for multiple transfusions, might lead to 0.005 cases annually, or approximately one in one billion nationally, and comparable to recent one in 1.45 billion estimates for Australia. Our analyses suggests that relaxing current blood donation restrictions, like Ireland and Australia's recent policy changes, would lead to an extremely low risk of vCJD transfusion-transmission in New Zealand. This policy change would help increase the supply of blood products for multiple medical needs.

The differential diagnoses for severe enteropathy or severely damaged small intestinal mucosa.

Aim: The aim of this study was to explore the aetiology of severe duodenal mucosal abnormality in consecutive patients who underwent gastroscopy and duodenal biopsy over the past 10 years. Background: A range of differential diagnoses have been reported for severe duodenal architectural distortion. Methods: Clinical and laboratory data of all the patients with severe duodenal architectural distortion diagnosed at MidCentral District Health Board (DHB), New Zealand were collected and statistically analysed. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals (CI) are shown. Results: Between September 2009 and April 2019, 229 patients were diagnosed with severe enteropathy. The median patient age was 41 years (range 6-83 years). Two hundred and twenty-four of these patients (97.8%, 95.0-99.3%) were diagnosed with coeliac disease (CeD), with one of these patients having gluten induced T-cell lymphoma. From the remaining five patients, one had a diagnosis of tropical sprue and four did not have a clear aetiology. There were 180 patients from 191 (94.2%, 89.9-97.1%) with at least one positive coeliac marker, all with a diagnosis of CeD. Eleven patients (5.8% of 191, 2.9-10.1%) had negative markers for both tissue transglutaminase IgA (tTG-IgA) and IgA-endomysial antibodies (EMA-IgA) with six having a diagnosis of seronegative CeD. Conclusion: Although the spectrum of histological changes in CeD may range from normal to a flat mucosa, severe duodenal architectural distortion seems to occur mainly in CeD. Idiopathic enteropathy was recorded as the second but by far less frequent presentation of severe enteropathy. This study highlights that infection and other aetiologies are rarely implicated in severe enteropathy, with one case (0.4%) of refractory CeD/T-cell lymphoma.

A novel, stain-free, natural auto-fluorescent signal, Sig M, identified from cytometric and transcriptomic analysis of infectivity of Cryptosporidium hominis and Cryptosporidium parvum.

Cryptosporidiosis is a worldwide diarrheal disease caused by the protozoan Cryptosporidium. The primary symptom is diarrhea, but patients may exhibit different symptoms based on the species of the Cryptosporidium parasite they are infected with. Furthermore, some genotypes within species are more transmissible and apparently virulent than others. The mechanisms underpinning these differences are not understood, and an effective in vitro system for Cryptosporidium culture would help advance our understanding of these differences. Using COLO-680N cells, we employed flow cytometry and microscopy along with the C. parvum-specific antibody Sporo-Glo™ to characterize infected cells 48 h following an infection with C. parvum or C. hominis. The Cryptosporidium parvum-infected cells showed higher levels of signal using Sporo-Glo™ than C. hominis-infected cells, which was likely because Sporo-Glo™ was generated against C. parvum. We found a subset of cells from infected cultures that expressed a novel, dose-dependent auto-fluorescent signal that was detectable across a range of wavelengths. The population of cells that expressed this signal increased proportionately to the multiplicity of infection. The spectral cytometry results confirmed that the signature of this subset of host cells closely matched that of oocysts present in the infectious ecosystem, pointing to a parasitic origin. Present in both C. parvum and C. hominis cultures, we named this Sig M, and due to its distinct profile in cells from both infections, it could be a better marker for assessing Cryptosporidium infection in COLO-680N cells than Sporo-Glo™. We also noted Sig M's impact on Sporo-Glo™ detection as Sporo-Glo™ uses fluoroscein-isothiocynate, which is detected where Sig M also fluoresces. Lastly, we used NanoString nCounter® analysis to investigate the transcriptomic landscape for the two Cryptosporidium species, assessing the gene expression of 144 host and parasite genes. Despite the host gene expression being at high levels, the levels of putative intracellular Cryptosporidium gene expression were low, with no significant difference from controls, which could be, in part, explained by the abundance of uninfected cells present as determined by both Sporo-Glo™ and Sig M analyses. This study shows for the first time that a natural auto-fluorescent signal, Sig M, linked to Cryptosporidium infection can be detected in infected host cells without any fluorescent labeling strategies and that the COLO-680N cell line and spectral cytometry could be useful tools to advance the understanding of Cryptosporidium infectivity.

Addressing the challenges of implementing evidence-based prioritisation in global health.

Global health requires evidence-based approaches to improve health and decrease inequalities. In a roundtable discussion between health practitioners, funders, academics and policy-makers, we recognised key areas for improvement to deliver better-informed, sustainable and equitable global health practices. These focus on considering information-sharing mechanisms and developing evidence-based frameworks that take an adaptive function-based approach, grounded in the ability to perform and respond to prioritised needs. Increasing social engagement as well as sector and participant diversity in whole-of-society decision-making, and collaborating with and optimising on hyperlocal and global regional entities, will improve prioritisation of global health capabilities. Since the skills required to navigate drivers of pandemics, and the challenges in prioritising, capacity building and response do not sit squarely in the health sector, it is essential to integrate expertise from a broad range of fields to maximise on available knowledge during decision-making and system development. Here, we review the current assessment tools and provide seven discussion points for how improvements to implementation of evidence-based prioritisation can improve global health.

Diagnosis of protozoa diarrhoea in Campylobacter patients increases markedly with molecular techniques.

Cryptosporidium and Giardia are major causes of diarrhoea globally, and two of the most notified infectious diseases in New Zealand. Diagnosis requires laboratory confirmation carried out mostly via antigen or microscopy-based techniques. However, these methods are increasingly being superseded by molecular techniques. Here we investigate the level of protozoa detection by molecular methods in campylobacteriosis cases missed through antigen-based assays and investigate different molecular testing protocols. We report findings from two observational studies; the first among 111 people during a Campylobacter outbreak and the second during normal surveillance activities among 158 people presenting with diarrhoea and a positive Campylobacter test, but negative Cryptosporidium and Giardia antigen-based test results. The molecular methods used for comparison were in-house end-point PCR tests targeting the gp60 gene for Cryptosporidium and gdh gene for Giardia. DNA extraction was performed with and without bead-beating and comparisons with commercial real-time quantitative (qPCR) were made using clinical Cryptosporidium positive sample dilutions down to 10-5. The Cryptosporidium prevalence was 9% (95% CI: 3-15; 10/111) and Giardia prevalence 21% (95% CI: 12-29; 23/111) in the 111 Campylobacter outbreak patients. The Cryptosporidium prevalence was 40% (95% CI: 32-48; 62/158) and Giardia prevalence 1.3% (95% CI: 0.2-4.5; 2/158) in the 158 routine surveillance samples. Sequencing identified Cryptosporidium hominis, C. parvum, and Giardia intestinalis assemblages A and B. We found no statistical difference in positive test results between samples using end-point PCR with or without bead-beating prior to DNA extraction, or between the in-house end-point PCR and qPCR. The qPCR Ct value was 36 (95% CI: 35-37) for 1 oocyst, suggesting a high limit of detection. In conclusion in surveillance and outbreak situations we found diagnostic serology testing underdiagnoses Cryptosporidium and Giardia coinfections in Campylobacter patients, suggesting the impact of protozoa infections may be underestimated through underdiagnosis using antigen-based assays.

Abundant dsRNA picobirnaviruses show little geographic or host association in terrestrial systems.

Picobirnaviruses are double-stranded RNA viruses known from a wide range of host species and locations but with unknown pathogenicity and host relationships. Here, we examined the diversity of picobirnaviruses from cattle and gorillas within and around Bwindi Impenetrable Forest National Park (BIFNP), Uganda, where wild and domesticated animals and humans live in relatively close contact. We use metagenomic sequencing with bioinformatic analyses to examine genetic diversity. We compared our findings to global Picobirnavirus diversity using clustering-based analyses. Picobirnavirus diversity at Bwindi was high, with 14 near-complete RdRp and 15 capsid protein sequences, and 497 new partial viral sequences recovered from 44 gorilla samples and 664 from 16 cattle samples. Sequences were distributed throughout a phylogenetic tree of globally derived picobirnaviruses. The relationship with Picobirnavirus diversity and host taxonomy follows a similar pattern to the global dataset, generally lacking pattern with either host or geography.

A review and analysis of cryptosporidiosis outbreaks in New Zealand.

Cryptosporidium is a leading global cause of diarrhoea with many reported outbreaks related to water and zoonotic transmission. This study summarizes data from Public Health Surveillance reports since 2010 in New Zealand to describe exposures associated with human diarrhoea outbreaks caused by Cryptosporidium. We investigate the species and subtypes of cases involved in some of the outbreaks to elucidate transmission routes and the predominant aetiological agents of cryptosporidiosis. For the period 2010­2017, 318 cryptosporidiosis outbreaks were reported in New Zealand resulting in 1634 cases and 20 hospitalizations. The most important mode of transmission was person-to-person (primary infections and secondary or close contacts infections), relating to 260 outbreaks and 1320 cases, followed by 113 outbreaks associated with animals, resulting in 436 human cases. From 2018 to 2021, there were 37 cryptosporidiosis outbreaks associated with 324 cases. We identified the subtypes by using polymerase chain reaction targeting the gp60 gene and the likelihood of mixed subtype infections with the Tracking of Indels by DEcomposition (TIDE) algorithm. Subtype families Ib and Ig of Cryptosporidium hominis and IIa and IId of Cryptosporidium parvum were found among cases; however, C. hominis subtypes occurred in 8 of the 11 outbreaks reviewed where molecular data were available. Examination of the chromatograms showed no mixed subtype infections in the samples assessed. Subtyping data need to be routinely incorporated into national surveillance programmes to better understand the epidemiology, sources, transmission and extent of cryptosporidiosis outbreaks in New Zealand. Our study highlights the value of integrating epidemiological information and molecular typing to investigate and manage clusters of cryptosporidiosis cases.

Mammal-related Cryptosporidium infections in endemic reptiles of New Zealand.

New Zealand's endemic reptile fauna is highly threatened and pathogens causing infectious diseases may be a significant risk to already endangered species. Here, we investigate Cryptosporidium infection in captive endemic New Zealand reptiles. We found two mammal-related Cryptosporidium species (C. hominis and C. parvum) and six subtypes from three gp60 families (Ib, Ig and IIa) in 12 individuals of captive endemic Tuatara, Otago and Grand skinks, and Jewelled and Rough geckos. Cryptosporidium serpentis was identified in two Jewelled geckos using 18S. In New Zealand, C. hominis and C. parvum are associated with infections in humans and introduced domestic animals but have also been recently found in wildlife. Our finding of Cryptosporidium infection in endemic reptiles can help inform strategies to monitor the conservation of species and manage potential introductions of pathogens to in-situ and ex-situ populations.

Molecular Evidence of Leptospira spp. in Isolated Fijian Bats.

Bats host several zoonotic pathogens. Island biogeography and epidemiologic theory predict small remote islands have lower infection diversity. Molecular studies of urine and feces from three species at 10 sites from three islands suggest multiple pathogenic Leptospira, but not coronavirus, paramyxovirus, or Histoplasma, circulate in isolated Pacific Fijian bat populations.

Is duodenal biopsy always necessary for the diagnosis of coeliac disease in adult patients with high anti-tissue transglutaminase (TTG) antibody titres?

Objective: Avoiding duodenal biopsy in adults for coeliac disease (CD) diagnosis is controversial. Some retrospective and prospective studies have shown that CD can be reliably diagnosed in adults with serology rather than duodenal biopsies. This study aimed to check the accuracy of a cut-off value of ≥10 upper limit of normal of anti-tissue transglutaminase antibody (anti-TTG IgA) titres for CD diagnosis in adult patients. Method: We retrospectively analysed adult patients (≥16 years) who underwent gastroscopy from 2013 to 2018 for positive coeliac serology. The relationship between titres and disease was determined by using linear models, whereas sensitivity and specificity were assessed by receiver operator curve. Results: We analysed 144 newly anti-TTG antibody-positive adult patients with a median age of 48.5 years (IQR 32-62); among them, 86 (60%) patients had CD (Marsh III: n=68 and Marsh II and I: n=18) with a higher prevalence in females (n=59 (69%)) and Europeans (n=60 (70%)). Fifty (58%) patients with CD had colonoscopy and five (6%) had imaging; only six patients were diagnosed with additional conditions. An anti-TTG IgA titre cut-off value of 150 U/L was 100% specific for CD in our dataset, with 70% (95% CI: 60% to 88%) sensitivity for this patient group. Conclusion: Coeliac serology using anti-TTG IgA with titres ≥10× normal value is an excellent predictor of CD, irrespective of age, gender and ethnicity. Duodenal biopsy may not be necessary in selected adult patients with CD, especially younger than 50 years of age without additional gastrointestinal red-flag signs and symptoms.